US CPI data release drives a strong rally in markets in June 2024, and SA’s GNU is well received by local markets.
SA inc stocks jumped although there was some retracement as there is still uncertainty as to how effectively the political parties will work together. Big tech continued to be a driving force for markets, and while AI remains a clear tailwind for the technology sector there are some questions around which players will truly unlock value.
Politics dominate headlines in May 2024, and South Africa’s elections result in a pivotal shift in the political landscape.
For the first time, South Africa is facing a coalition Government at National level as voters voiced their frustrations with the ANC, and it’s now up to party leaders to put their country first as negotiations for the way forward begin. In market news, the macro environment remains focused on the inflation trajectory and what that might do to rate cut expectations.
Persistent inflation - and an interest rate increase - brings about a volatile April 2024, with equities moving in both directions on a daily basis
There has been a significant shift in market expectations in 2024 to date – while we started the year with optimism around the disinflation progress allowing significant rate cuts during the year, the odds of a June Fed rate cut dropped to 20% from the prior weeks 60% probability, and following this shift we saw interest rates increase.
March 2024 sees rates remain at the current level, and data supporting a soft landing
Although Fed officials are sending mixed messages about rate cuts, the trend demonstrates that we are moving into a rate cutting cycle.
Global markets hit new all time highs in February 2024, while the JSE sees another negative month
Offshore markets are off to a good start for 2024, driven by rate cut expectations and IT tailwinds. Douglas Investments’ portfolios have benefitted from this move, based on our technology bias and strong earnings from some of our preferred single stocks, however, expectations may be elevated resulting in high valuations.
Positive macroeconomic trends in January 2024 amid speculation regarding timing of rate cuts
The start of 2024 witnessed strength in the US equity market, speculation around the timing of rate cuts and growing geopolitical tensions.
Market outlook for 2024: Geopolitical tensions and earnings expectations
We discuss December market trends, highlighting the impact of significant events, the conclusion of the Fed hiking cycle leading to a dovish shift, geopolitical tensions, and the outlook for 2024.
November 2023 market highlights: US equities drive strong performance
November witnessed robust market performance, fueled by strong US equities, and a notable dovish shift in central bank policies amid disinflationary signals, setting the stage for a potentially optimistic close to the year.
October 2023 market recap: Volatility persists amid geopolitical tensions and bond market fluctuations
October marked a challenging month for markets characterized by significant volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, fluctuating bond markets, and cautious earnings outlook.
September 2023 witnesses global market downturn amid higher interest rate rhetoric
In a challenging September marked by global market declines due to higher interest rate concerns, geopolitical tensions, and the Fed's hawkish stance, investors are cautiously adjusting portfolios while keeping an eye on inflation and upcoming data points.
August 2023 investment recap: BRICS expansion and market volatility amid global economic challenges
In August 2023, global markets faced bearish trends driven by rising bond yields, with notable impacts from China's economic challenges and the expansion of BRICS membership.
July 2023: Global markets see strong performance amid lower inflation
In July, markets experienced robust performance driven by lower inflation, positive economic data and strong tech sector returns, while geopolitical tensions persist.
US markets thrive in June 2023 amidst geopolitical tensions
June witnessed robust growth in US markets, geopolitical tensions globally, and South Africa grappling with headwinds.
May 2023 witnessed global market volatility, AI enthusiasm, and US debt ceiling concerns
May witnessed market volatility, AI enthusiasm, US debt ceiling concerns, and South Africa's economic struggles, with a global economic slowdown anticipated as central banks tighten policies.
April 2023 saw markets focus on inflation and central bank rate hikes
April witnessed market focus on inflation and central bank rate hikes amid earnings season, with the US displaying optimism, contrasting with high fixed-income volatility.
March 2023 review: Market shift from inflation focus to financial stability
March witnessed a macro shift from inflation concerns to financial stability, driven by a US regional bank liquidity crisis, triggering global market volatility. Central banks acted swiftly to restore calm.
February 2023 markets navigate volatility amid disinflation slowdown
February witnessed continued market volatility with Qtr4 2022 earnings meeting expectations but muted forward guidance.
January 2023 shows positive trends with cautiously optimistic outlook
January 2023 marked a positive start for markets, reflecting optimism amid improving macroeconomic conditions, lowered inflation, and potential Fed rate pauses.